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January: NASDAQ Has the Greatest Odds of Good points, BUT… | Mish’s Market Minute

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“January supplies us with a wealth of data that will get our 12 months off to an excellent begin, financially and emotionally.

“The info is particularly chosen to start in 2009 as a result of that’s the backside of essentially the most vital bear market previous to the 2022 bear market, and 2009 represents the start of an period of distinctly completely different execution of financial coverage by the Federal Reserve.

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“There’s clearly one index that stands out. As you may see within the chart, QQQ is the very best performer based mostly on the proportion of occasions its January is optimistic. Nevertheless, a 60% win price over the past 15 years is not very spectacular, and the opposite 3 inventory indexes have truly been down extra usually than up over the 15-year interval. So, one clear conclusion is that if you wish to be lengthy an index, QQQ has the very best odds in January.”

That was Geoff Bysshe, President of MarketGauge.com.

Nevertheless, proper now, we’re all concerning the Russells. Granddad Russell 2000 has been a stronger performer in January within the final 5 years.

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We have now began January 2024 up to now, weaker, however the actual take a look at can be 2-fold: first, whether or not IWM holds 180, and second, how IWM performs versus the 6-month excessive and low set in January.

That is the every day chart of IWM. The horizontal inexperienced line would be the one that’s reset this month for the brand new 6-month January calendar vary. IWM had a golden cross (the 50-DMA crosses above the 200-DMA), which places this index formally in a bullish section. With a reversal high, we are able to see a 5-10% decline as regular. That places the goal anyplace between 195 and 185.

Up to now on the second day in, IWM is buying and selling round 195. Essential to notice is that the Management indicator exhibits IWM buying and selling on par with SPY. On condition that SPY is often not as robust as IWM in January, we don’t wish to see IWM underperform the SPY.

Lastly, our Actual Movement Indicator exhibits a imply reversion and a golden cross between its 50 and 200-DMAs.

We’re inspired that IWM is testing and holding assist. We’re inspired that statistically, IWM has improved in January within the final 5 years. We’re affected person although, to see if Granny Retail XRT holds 70.00. And we’re additionally affected person on majorly including discretionary swing buying and selling positions till we see the January 6-month calendar ranges set.


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That is for instructional functions solely. Buying and selling comes with threat.

In case you discover it troublesome to execute the MarketGauge methods or want to discover how we are able to do it for you, please e-mail Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com, our Head of Institutional Gross sales. Cell: 612-518-2482.

For extra detailed buying and selling details about our blended fashions, instruments and dealer schooling programs, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Technique Marketing consultant, to be taught extra.

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Comply with Mish on X @marketminute for inventory picks and extra. Comply with Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for every day morning movies. To see up to date media clips, click on right here.


On the Tuesday, January 2 version of StockCharts TV’s The Ultimate Bar, Mish (beginning at 22:21) talks small caps, retail, junk, and why all three matter in 2024 rather a lot.

In this look on BNN Bloomberg, Mish talks a very fascinating chart, plus different locations to spend money on 2024.

On this look on Fox Enterprise’ Making Cash with Charles Payne, Mish talks with Cheryl Casone about Bitcoin’s volatility and why EVs will not be such a terrific place to spend money on proper now.

Recorded on December 28, Mish talks about themes for 2024 to search for, and tells you the place to focus, what to purchase, and what to keep away from relying on financial and market circumstances on Singapore Breakfast Bites.

Mish sits down with 2 different market consultants that can assist you put together for 2024 with predictions, picks, and technical evaluation in StockCharts TV’s Charting Ahead particular.

Recorded December 27, Mish provides you a fast snippet of the general macro prediction for 2024 on The Road with J.D. Durkin.


Coming Up:

January 5: Each day Briefing, Actual Imaginative and prescient

January 22: Your Each day 5, StockCharts TV

January 24: Yahoo! Finance

Weekly: Enterprise First AM, CMC Markets


  • S&P 500 (SPY): 480 all-time highs, 460 underlying assist.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 195 near-term assist, 180 main assist.
  • Dow (DIA): Wants to carry 370.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 390 main assist with 408 resistance.
  • Regional Banks (KRE): 47 assist, 55 resistance.
  • Semiconductors (SMH): 160 main assist and 170 now resistance to clear.
  • Transportation (IYT): Wants to carry 250.
  • Biotechnology (IBB): 130 pivotal assist.
  • Retail (XRT): Examined 70.00 degree, which bulls must see maintain.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Buying and selling Analysis and Schooling

Mish Schneider

Concerning the creator:
Mish Schneider serves as Director of Buying and selling Schooling at MarketGauge.com. For almost 20 years, MarketGauge.com has offered monetary info and schooling to 1000’s of people, in addition to to massive monetary establishments and publications akin to Barron’s, Constancy, ILX Programs, Thomson Reuters and Financial institution of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of many high 50 monetary individuals to comply with on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Prime Inventory Decide of the 12 months for RealVision.

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